An Analysis of Vaccine Uptake

The Forbidden COVID-19 Chronicles August 9 2021

An Analysis You Will Want to Read!

Pamela A. Popper, President

Wellness Forum Health

According to the CDC, 60.8% of all adults are fully vaccinated, and over 80% of seniors have taken the jab.[1] Hospitals are telling their employees that over 70% of staff have been vaccinated and at least one airline reports that almost all pilots have been vaccinated. The state-controlled media reports daily that the vaccine rate is very high – just not high enough, which is why continued pressure is needed to convince more people to get in line and get the jab. These reports have led many unvaccinated people to conclude that they are in the minority.

But something is not quite right. If the vaccine rate is really so high, why is there so much hysteria about getting more people vaccinated? The reason government officials are applying so much pressure is that they are panicked. The vaccine uptake is significantly lower than they have reported, and it seems that almost no matter what they do, it won’t budge.

COVID Vaccines in Ohio

Ohio, like most other states, launched it’s COVID vaccine program with mass vaccination clinics throughout the state. The first sign that the clinics were not doing well was when Emperor DeWine issued an “urgent appeal” on June 7 stating that “The time to act is now.”[2] The reason for the urgent plea? 200,000 doses of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine were going to expire unused on June 23. DeWine announced several strategies for preventing this, including deploying a mobile vaccine unit to worksites.

According to a friend, the mobile unit was parked in front of a building with 50,000 employees inside, and during an 8-hour workday, only about a dozen people showed up to be vaccinated. A tad embarrassing, and the mobile unit was no longer discussed.

Ohio is the model state for the rest of the country, so it is not surprising that our emperor was the first to announce a “vaccine lottery” with millions of dollars in cash prizes and college tuition. Other states, as usual, followed suit.

But within a short time, reports showed that millions of dollars in prizes did not motivate people to get the jab. For 10 days, the number of adults getting the shot increased by 40% but by four weeks later, the number of adults being jabbed was lower than it was before the lottery was launched. At this time, Ohio continues to lag behind the national average in the percentage of adults who have had a first dose.[3]

The Problem is Not Limited to Ohio

According to Irwin Redlener, director of the Pandemic Resource and Response Initiative at Columbia University, “It’s just not working. People aren’t buying it. The incentives don’t seem to be working — whether it’s a doughnut, a car or a million dollars.”[4]

The news was equally dismal in Oregon, where the empress Kate Brown also instituted a lottery. This generated a small and temporary uptake in some eastern conservative counties but not at all what was expected. Trying to spin the situation, Charles Boyle, a spokesperson for Brown, said that the lottery was just one of many strategies the state used, and that officials did not expect it to have a big impact.[5]

After watching the lottery failures, Maine Democratic Governor Janet Mills announced a sweepstakes with a twist: the prize money would increase by one dollar for every person vaccinated in the state. “If it helps turn the direction of the declining rate, that’s the best, but if it just doesn’t cause the rate to go down further, that’s a win, too,” said Nirav Shah, the director of Maine’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This is an interesting twist – just slowing the rate of declining interest was the new goal in Maine.[6]

New York fared no better with only a 10% jump in adults getting their first shot after the lottery was announced followed by a 40% drop. And shortly after North Carolina instituted a lottery, health department data showed that the state’s vaccination rate was not going to get any better, even with incentives.[7]

Some Real Numbers

The Kaiser Family Foundation gathered data from 2415 counties and reported that as of May 11, an average of 28.5% of people living in counties that Trump carried were fully vaccinated, while 35% of people living in counties carries by Biden were fully vaccinated.[8] It looks like the administration added these two numbers together in order to report good news about vaccine uptake rather than taking the average of the two which is under 32%. These data were collected less than a month before DeWine started scrambling to get the numbers up in Ohio.

By July reports of expiring vaccine stockpiles started appearing even in mainstream news, and state health departments started asking the federal government to send their vaccines to foreign countries so that they would not go to waste.

Robert Ator, a retired colonel in the Arkansas Air National Guard is in charge of his state’s Covid-19 vaccine distribution drive, and reported, “We’re drowning in this stuff. It’s starting to get a bit silly…”[9] The problem is widespread, with CDC data showing that states have administered 52.36 million fewer doses than were distributed to them.[10]

Marcus Plescia is chief medical officer at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. He says, “We’re seeing demand falling off across all the states. It’s not like, if Connecticut doesn’t need theirs, it can go to Alabama. There just isn’t the demand.”[11]

North Carolina was set to discard 119,756 doses from all three vaccines by the end of July; reported that an additional 854,548 would be expected to expire in August; and that hundreds of thousands more doses would likely expire in the fall. Arkansas was expected to toss 380,000 doses, and Colorado was sitting on 352,533 doses expected to expire by September.[12]

The federal government has purchased a total of 1.41 billion doses, of which a little over 405 million doses had been distributed to states by August 6 2021.[13] The feds have committed to purchase another 562 million doses from Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson and Johnson by the end of 2021.[14] Another 500 million doses were purchased to send to low-income nations.[15] This is an incredible gift to the vaccine makers, but hard to justify in view of so little demand.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reports that it had considered redistributing vaccines stockpiled by the states, but that it was “…legally and logistically complex.”[16] In plain English I think this means there is no place where interest is high enough to send the excess inventory to.

No Wonder “They” Are Frantic

The plan has not worked. Alcohol, marijuana, donuts, cheeseburgers, ice cream, convenience, and even significant amounts of money have not motivated most people to get the jab. Now they must be forced, which is why the sudden push for mandates and COVID vaccine passports. More about this next week.


[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state accessed 8.6.2021

[2] https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-and-media/dewine-issues-urgent-appeal-to-covid19-vaccine-providers-06072021 accessed 8.6.2021

[3] Dan Goldberg and Tucker Doherty. Million-dollar lotteries fail to cur through vaccine apathy. Politico June 19 2021

[4] IBID

[5] IBID

[6] IBID

[7] IBID

[8] Nathaniel Weixel. Risks rise as vaccination gap with Trump counties grows wider. The Hill July 6 2021

[9] Olivia Goldhill. States are sitting on millions of surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses as expiration dates approach. STAT July 20 2021

[10] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total accessed 8.6.2021

[11] Olivia Goldhill. States are sitting on millions of surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses as expiration dates approach. STAT July 20 2021

[12] IBID

[13] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total accessed 8.6.2021

[14] Olivia Goldhill. States are sitting on millions of surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses as expiration dates approach. STAT July 20 2021

[15] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/10/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-historic-vaccine-donation-half-a-billion-pfizer-vaccines-to-the-worlds-lowest-income-nations/ accessed 8.6.2021

[16] Olivia Goldhill. States are sitting on millions of surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses as expiration dates approach. STAT July 20 2021